How to Quantify Infectious Disease Response Risk/Reward
I propose to the #CDC @CDCgov or whoever would be in charge, that we not evaluate infectious disease responses in terms deaths prevented, but rather in terms of YEARS of life saved. This makes the risk/reward easier to quantify. If the disease is costing us an average of 10 years of life for .002% of the population, then maybe it's not worth asking 100% of the population to stay in their homes for 2 years. The net negative impact to humanity is actually greater for the preventative action. Additionally, if the risk/reward is properly quantified, we don't have to force anyone to do anything and we shouldn't do this. We can simply give them the numbers, and let them make up their minds as to the risk they want to take. We could rate disease in terms of years of life lost, years of life that are potentially salvageable through actions, years of life impacted by actions taken and severity of actions required as a multiplier on those years. If severi...